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Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia

The Journal of Development Studies, 1–27. https://doi.org/10.1080/00220388.2024.2374072

Sara Balestri, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & CESPIC

 

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia – both regions being predominantly characterised by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities – spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence.