Working Papers
WP5 - Arms Import and Civil Conflict Onset: Risk-Set Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa, 1960-2022
Anna Balestra, Department of Economic Policy, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & International Peace Science Center (IPSC)
Raul Caruso, Department of Economic Policy, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & International Peace Science Center (IPSC) & CESPIC, Catholic University “Our Lady of Good Counsel”
Abstract
Civil conflicts impose massive costs, yet their onset determinants remain contested. This paper examines whether deliveries of major conventional weapons (MCW) precipitate new intrastate violence episodes, using annual panel data for 46 Sub-Saharan African countries (1960–2022). We construct civil conflict onset on an explicit risk set - excluding ongoing-conflict years per McGrath (2015) - and model duration dependence via cubic peace-years polynomials (Carter and Signorino, 2010). The key regressor is inverse hyperbolic sine-transformed SIPRI TIV deliveries (contemporaneous plus lags), capturing realized coercive inflows. Within-country fixed effects models reveal a robust positive association: unusual delivery spikes elevate onset probability. Placebo leads yield no pre-trends; leave-one-country-out diagnostics confirm broad-based effects. Fiscal capacity enters negatively, supporting crowding-out channels. To connect with climate-related stress pathways, we control for lagged climatic anomalies using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and its square: these aggregate country-year terms are imprecisely estimated and do not display robust direct effects on onset once fixed effects and institutional covariates are included, but their inclusion leaves the arms-onset relationship essentially unchanged. Results survive nonlinear triangulation (logit, PPML, cloglog), wild bootstrap, and permutation inference. Cumulative availability and binned exposures display monotone escalation. Findings advance Pamp et al. (2018) conditional insight - arms amplify hazard selectively in high-risk settings - via risk-set precision and Sub-Saharan identification, while suggesting that climate-conflict links may be difficult to detect in annual national panels where climatic exposure and its institutional mediation are highly heterogeneous. Policy cautions against unconditioned MCW to fragile recipients, favoring capacity-contingent restraint.
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WP4 - Education and Military Spending: Countervailing Forces in Designing an Economic Policy for Peace
Anna Balestra, Department of Economic Policy, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & International Peace Science Center (IPSC)
Raul Caruso, Department of Economic Policy, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & International Peace Science Center (IPSC) & CESPIC, Catholic University “Our Lady of Good Counsel”
Abstract
This paper contributes to peace research by assessing the viability of an economic policy instrument for sustaining social peace. The central argument posited herein is that the ratio of public investment in education to military expenditure (henceforth referred to as Edumilex) serves as a meaningful instrument for promoting policies conducive to peace. To empirically evaluate the impact of Edumilex on peace, we construct a measure of domestic peace (henceforth referred to as Social Peace Index) structured around four core dimensions: (i) Health, (ii) Standard of living, (iii) Quality of institutions, and (iv) Spread of violence. Utilizing a panel dataset of 88 countries from 1990 to 2020, we estimate the impact of Edumilex on Social Peace Index through an IV/2SLS estimator. The findings reveal a robust and positive relationship, suggesting that Edumilex holds potential as an effective tool for economic policy geared toward peace. In addition, we document a systematic climatic dimension: hydroclimatic stress—captured by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI)—is negatively associated with social peace, whereas CO2 emissions per capita (used as a proxy for development) correlate positively with the index, consistent with the climate–conflict literature emphasizing the role of climatic shocks and vulnerability (Harari and La Ferrara, 2018; Ide et al., 2021; von Uexkull et al., 2016). This proposition represents an innovative departure from traditional perspectives, as governments typically treat education and military spending as discrete policy areas. However, our results suggest this perspective may be limited, as both sectors critically impact peace. By linking these domains, this study clarifies the broader implications of balanced public spending, offering insights for policymakers on fostering stable, peaceful societies through integrated economic strategies.
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WP3 - Does corruption trigger political violence? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (1970-2020)
Raul Caruso, International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Emma Galli, Sapienza University of Rome
Giulia Tringali, Sapienza University of Rome & International Peace Science Center (IPSC), Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Abstract
This paper empirically investigates the relationship between corruption and political violence in 49 Sub- Saharan African countries over the period 1970-2020. Specifically, it examines whether corruption influences both the incidence and the brutality of political violence. To address this question, the study employs an articulated estimation strategy: first, we analyze the impact of corruption on political violence incidence and brutality by using count data models (Negbin and ZINB) and a LPM; then we also employ an IV estimation for the OLS model and a Two-stage Residual inclusion (2SRI) estimation. Across the different specifications, our findings highlight a strong and positive relation between political corruption and both the incidence and brutality of political violence. Control variables present the expected relations with the dependent variable and in particular, we also focus on climate change. By employing also interaction terms between SPEI and corruption, the results suggest that an increase in precipitations in corrupted countries leads to and increase of violence. In addition, our main results show that past corruption level has a great impact on today violence, while past extreme weather events do not.
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WP2 - Climate Change – Agrifood – Conflict Nexus Pathways: A Scoping Review of the Literature
Donato Romano, Università degli Studi di Firenze
Luca Tiberti, Università degli Studi di Firenze
Tulia Gattone, Università degli Studi di Firenze
Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Sara Balestri, Università degli Studi di Perugia
Anna Balestra, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Abstract
This paper explores the pathways linking climate change and conflict, shedding light on the critical role the agrifood system can play as an intermediary. By conducting a scoping review of recent literature (2014-2024), this paper identifies two main pathways: increased competition over natural resources used in agriculture and decreased agricultural productivity. While some relationships, such as those examining the immediate causes of conflict – like threats to livelihoods, increased migration, and food insecurity – have been extensively studied, others, such as the impact of price changes and market forces, remain surprisingly underexplored. Various empirical approaches have been employed to identify these pathways, including ordinary least squares and logit/probit regressions as well as instrumental variables and structural equation modeling. Recently, the availability of high-resolution georeferenced datasets including socio-economic, environmental and conflict data, along with methodological advancements like spatial econometrics, have prompted more detailed and rigorous analyses. Current research gaps include the paucity of empirical studies at the micro level and the insufficient exploration of how market-based mechanisms influence the dynamics between climate change and conflict through the agrifood sector. The paper discusses future research directions, emphasizing the need for multidisciplinary approaches.
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WP1 - Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia
Sara Balestri, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore
Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & CESPIC
Abstract
This paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia - both regions being predominantly characterized by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities - spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence.
Last update
22.01.2026