Publications and Presentations Working Papers

Working Papers

WP2 - Climate Change – Agrifood – Conflict Nexus Pathways: A Scoping Review of the Literature

Donato Romano, Università degli Studi di Firenze

Luca Tiberti, Università degli Studi di Firenze

Tulia Gattone, Università degli Studi di Firenze

Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore 

Sara Balestri, Università degli Studi di Perugia

Anna Balestra, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

 

Abstract

This paper explores the pathways linking climate change and conflict, shedding light on the critical role the agrifood system can play as an intermediary. By conducting a scoping review of recent literature (2014-2024), this paper identifies two main pathways: increased competition over natural resources used in agriculture and decreased agricultural productivity. While some relationships, such as those examining the immediate causes of conflict – like threats to livelihoods, increased migration, and food insecurity – have been extensively studied, others, such as the impact of price changes and market forces, remain surprisingly underexplored. Various empirical approaches have been employed to identify these pathways, including ordinary least squares and logit/probit regressions as well as instrumental variables and structural equation modeling. Recently, the availability of high-resolution georeferenced datasets including socio-economic, environmental and conflict data, along with methodological advancements like spatial econometrics, have prompted more detailed and rigorous analyses. Current research gaps include the paucity of empirical studies at the micro level and the insufficient exploration of how market-based mechanisms influence the dynamics between climate change and conflict through the agrifood sector. The paper discusses future research directions, emphasizing the need for multidisciplinary approaches.

 

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WP1 - Vulnerability to Climate Change and Communal Conflicts: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia

Sara Balestri, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore

Raul Caruso, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore & CESPIC

 

Abstract

This paper examines the influence of climate change vulnerability on the likelihood and severity of communal violence, with a particular emphasis on delineating large-scale regional patterns. Specifically, the analysis centres on Sub-Saharan Africa and South/South-East Asia - both regions being predominantly characterized by rain-fed agriculture and climate-sensitive economic activities - spanning the years 1995 to 2021. Relying on the ND-GAIN Vulnerability Index as a multidimensional measure for propensity of societies to be negatively impacted by climate change, we found robust evidence that greater vulnerability is conducive to a higher likelihood and severity of communal violence in Sub-Saharan Africa. On the other hand, in South/South-East Asia, results suggest that current climate variability, measured as rainfall deviations within the period, exerts a greater effect on communal violence outbreak than overall vulnerability to climate change. In both regions, greater access to productive means is significantly associated to the reduction of communal violence.